The 30th Conference of the Parties (COP30) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) will be held in Belém, Brazil, from 10-21 November 2025.

COP30 marks 20 years since the Kyoto Protocol entered into force, 10 years since the adoption of the Paris Agreement and the first time a COP will be hosted in the Amazon—one of the planet’s most vital ecosystems. The significance of this was echoed by Brazil’s Environment Minister, Marina Silva, who called for the creation of a global roadmap to phase out fossil fuels and deforestation—two key priorities for COP30—at a recent UN summit.

While new geopolitical and economic disputes are arising, COP30 could represent a pivotal moment in international climate diplomacy. Countries will be assessed on their updated 2035 national climate plans – their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) – outlining their emission reduction targets and implementation strategies, and thus how they will transform their economies. Adaptation will also be on the minds of ministers at COP30, particularly in relation to finalising a framework to track progress toward the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) and the submission of National Adaptation Plans, which are also due this year.

Climate finance will also take centre stage at COP30, building on the contentious but consequential outcomes of COP29 in Baku. These included the New Collective Quantified Goal, which saw nations committing to mobilise at least $300 billion annually over the next decade, with developed nations taking the lead, and the Baku-Belém Roadmap which set a path toward scaling up climate finance to at least $1.3 trillion per year by 2035. To support this ambition, COP30 has convened a Circle of Finance Ministers, bringing together senior economic decision makers to advance the roadmap and unlock the necessary financial flows.

COP30 will therefore be expected to operationalise key elements of this new climate finance framework, signalling a transition into a “post-negotiation” phase. This will require identifying concrete mechanisms for scaling public and private capital flows, while addressing structural challenges such as high capital costs, limited fiscal space and persistent debt burdens in developing countries. All of this will unfold amid mounting geopolitical uncertainty, including leadership transitions in major economies, trade tensions, ongoing global conflicts and a marked shift towards increased military spending. In the context, climate summits like COP30 will need to act as venues for discussing how security depends on increased military spending that complements, rather than squeezes out, long-term climate investments.