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/ Filomena Annunziata
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This analysis aims to identify the minimum gas infrastructure Italy requires to ensure national energy security, after the consequences of the Russian invasion of Ukraine have shaped the European market and considering the progress on climate targets. The study was carried out using an optimisation model that simulates the balance between gas demand and supply in the European market for Italy with a daily granularity for 2030, 2040, and 2050.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the energy crisis which came in its wake have produced significant impacts on the energy sector in many EU countries, including Italy. This study shows that customers reacted to high gas prices by reducing consumption over and above the European target of 15%, with gas consumption dropping 18.6% from August 2022 to January 2023, in the absence of structural measures.
A propaedeutic analysis for the revision of the National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP). Estimates of the total investment that Italy needs in order to align with the new European Fit-for-55 targets range between an average of EUR 122 and EUR 134 billion per year. The additional investments needed are therefore EUR 30-42 billion per year higher than estimated in the NECP (2019), and 2-3 times higher than the amount allocated in the NRRP for the green transition in the 2021-26 five-year period (an average of EUR 14.4 billion per year).
This analysis aims to identify the minimum gas infrastructure Italy requires to ensure national energy security, after the consequences of the Russian invasion of Ukraine have shaped the European market and considering the progress on climate targets. The study was carried out using an optimisation model that simulates the balance between gas demand and supply in the European market for Italy with a daily granularity for 2030, 2040, and 2050.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the energy crisis which came in its wake have produced significant impacts on the energy sector in many EU countries, including Italy. This study shows that customers reacted to high gas prices by reducing consumption over and above the European target of 15%, with gas consumption dropping 18.6% from August 2022 to January 2023, in the absence of structural measures.
A propaedeutic analysis for the revision of the National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP). Estimates of the total investment that Italy needs in order to align with the new European Fit-for-55 targets range between an average of EUR 122 and EUR 134 billion per year. The additional investments needed are therefore EUR 30-42 billion per year higher than estimated in the NECP (2019), and 2-3 times higher than the amount allocated in the NRRP for the green transition in the 2021-26 five-year period (an average of EUR 14.4 billion per year).