Driving the change: monitoring of new vehicle fleet emissions

DRIVING THE CHANGE

Monthly observatory of the EU car market and the 2025 emissions gap

Conducted in collaboration with:

Source of data: Dataforce

With the next stage of the European Union’s new CO₂ emission targets for light vehicles taking effect in 2025 (-15% compared to 2021), the EU automotive sector faces a decisive challenge. As the transition toward zero-emission electrified mobility accelerates, monitoring the car market becomes a useful benchmark for assessing manufacturers’ strategies in response to the new emission reduction targets.

To inform the debate with updated and reliable data, ECCO, in collaboration with ICCT and IDDRI–IMT, publishes monthly information on the average specific emissions of new vehicle fleets introduced into the market by manufacturers operating in the European market, as well as their distance from 2025 reduction targets.*

The monitoring will be accompanied by additional details on car registrations by propulsion type (BEV, PHEV, HEV, MHEV) and quarterly updates on the development of charging infrastructure and the registration of light commercial vehicles.

Through these updates, we aim to provide an assessment tool for car manufacturers, analysts, policymakers and all stakeholders involved in the transition to zero-emission mobility.

*The targets are estimated on a monthly basis according to the methodology adopted by Regulation 631/2019, amended by Regulation 851/2023, based on the evolution of YTD sales by vehicle type and characteristics.

MONTHLY REPORT

Download the full report by ICCT, ECCO and IDDRI-IMT

February 2025

January 2025

2024

FEBRUARY 2025

DATA

Distance from 2025 targets

As of February 2025, the average CO2 emissions of the fleet of new cars entering the European market have remained largely unchanged compared to January. As a result, after two months on the market, the average emissions stand at 104 g CO2/km, which is 10 g CO2/km above the 2025 EU target (+11%). Looking at the individual pools of manufacturers, KG Mobility and BMW have sales mix performances with average fleet emissions already below their targets (-7% and -2%, respectively), while the Kia pool is largely in line with its goals (+1%). The Volkswagen pool has the greatest distance to go (+18%). In between these extremes are the Mercedes-Volvo-Polestar (+4%), Hyundai (+8%), Tesla-Stellantis-Toyota (+9%), and Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi (+9%) pools. All values take into account the compliance credits foreseen by the regulation.

Average emissions, distance from target and market share by pool of manufacturers

Looking at individual car brands with market shares of 1% or greater, apart from Tesla, after two months on the market Volvo had the greatest over-compliance at 30 g CO2/km below its projected brand-level target for 2025 and was followed by Cupra (17 g CO2/km below target). Meanwhile, Audi (33 g CO2/km above target), Mazda (+30), Ford (+28), SEAT (+27), and Nissan and Mercedes-Benz (both +26) are currently the farthest from their projected brand-level targets for 2025. Among Stellantis brands, Peugeot and Citroen (+8 g CO2/km) and Opel (+10 g CO2/km) show the best performance, while Fiat (+15 g CO2/km) and Jeep (+19 g CO2/km) show the worst.

Average emissions, distance from target and market share by group

New electric vehicle registrations by manufacturer pool

The performance in terms of the average distance from the targets highlighted above can be explained by looking at the registrations of zero and low-emission vehicles. The average share of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) among total new registrations in Europe remained stable at 16% in February 2025. The KG Mobility manufacturer pool had the highest BEV share in February (41%), and was followed by the BMW (25%), Mercedes-Volvo-Polestar (23%), Kia (22%), Volkswagen (18%), and Hyundai (17%) pools. The Tesla-Stellantis-Toyota pool was below the average (13% BEV share) and two additional brands, Suzuki and Honda, entered the pool in February. Similarly, the BEV share of the Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi pool (11%) was below the market average. Meanwhile, for Hyundai, the BEV share notably increased by 4 percentage points from January to February 2025 and it is above the European average. Shares of full hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) remained constant—13% average for the European market—and the Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi pool (29%) increased its share by 3 percentage points compared with the previous month. The Mercedes-Volvo-Polestar and BMW pools led in new registration shares of mild hybrid electric vehicles (MHEVs) at 38% and 36%, respectively, and Tesla-Stellantis-Toyota also had a high share, 34% (up from 29% in January 2025). The share of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) in new registrations in Europe stayed constant at 7%.

Share of BEV, PHEV, HEV and MHEV by pool of manufacturers

New electric vehicle registrations by country

In February 2025, with the exception of Spain (+12%), all the main European markets recorded a decrease in registrations compared to the same month in 2024: Belgium and the Netherlands (-8%), Italy (-7%), and Germany (-6%) recorded the most significant declines. Looking specifically at battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), the combined market share in Europe averaged 23%, down by 1 percentage point compared to January; the BEV share is higher than the PHEV share across all markets. Specifically, Norway (97%), Denmark (67%), Sweden (56%) and the Netherlands (51%) all recorded shares above 50%, while Belgium (41%), Ireland (29%) and Germany (26%) reported BEV + PHEV shares still above the European average.

Among the largest markets, the highest increases in BEV registrations occurred in Czechia and Spain, where shares increased 66% and 61%, respectively, in February 2025 compared with February 2024. Nearly 36,000 BEVs were registered last month in Germany, Europe’s largest market, and that was up 31% over February 2024. Over the same period, PHEV registration shares increased the most in Belgium (+67%) and HEV shares increased the most in Spain (+56%). Additionally, MHEVs are gaining popularity in France, where sales reached 23% in February 2025, up 86% from February 2024.

New BEV, plug-in hybrid, full hybrid and mild hybrid passenger car registrations by country

Share of new BEV, plug-in hybrid, full hybrid, and mild hybrid passenger cars by country

Historical trend of the share of new BEV registrations in Europe and Italy

At an aggregate level, the historical trend of BEV sales in Europe confirms the growing positive trend. In Italy, the trend remains positive compared to historical trends, although the curve is much less pronounced.

Italian focus

From May to December 2024, the Italian government provided purchase incentives for BEVs ranging from €6,000 to €13,750 per vehicle, with the highest amounts reserved for lower-income buyers and those scrapping older vehicles of Euro 4 emission standards or lower. Part of the Ecobonus scheme, these incentives were well received by consumers and the allocated €240 million was exhausted within hours of the program’s launch. In addition to BEVs, Ecobonus also included dedicated funds for PHEVs and conventional cars emitting up to 135 g CO2/km; unlike the BEV incentives, these funds lasted for most of the program’s duration. Even after the purchase incentive program ended, electric vehicle shares in Italy remained higher than 1 year before. In February 2025, approximately 5.0% (6,925 vehicles) of all new passenger car registrations in Italy were BEVs. This represents a 38% increase compared with February 2024. Including January 2025 registrations (6,721 vehicles, +132% compared with January 2024), total BEV sales in the first two months of 2025 amounted to 13,646 units, marking a 73% increase over the same period in 2024. For PHEVs, the market share in February was 4.5% (6,186 units sold), up 32% compared with February 2024 and up 26% over the first two months in 2024.

A manufacturer pool is an alliance between different automakers who collaborate to jointly meet the CO₂ emission targets set by regulations. In practice, manufacturers can combine the average CO₂ emissions of the vehicles they put on the market, offsetting the excess emissions of some brands with the stronger performance of others within the alliance. This mechanism allows manufacturers to balance their impact and avoid penalties, facilitating compliance with the targets set by the regulation on CO₂ standards. For this publication, the 2025 pools are defined according to the European Commission’s “M1 pooling list”, version of 15 January 2025, and the “Declarations of intent to form Open Pools”, version of 7 January 2025. The main brands include: BMW Group (BMW, Mini), Hyundai (Hyundai), KG Mobility (Great Wall Motor, Xpeng), Kia (Kia), Mercedes-Benz (Mercedes-Benz, Polestar, Smart, Volvo), Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi (Dacia, Mitsubishi, Nissan, Renault), Suzuki, Tesla (Alfa Romeo, Citroën, Fiat, Ford, Jeep, Lancia, Leapmotor, Lexus, Mazda, Opel, Peugeot, Subaru, Tesla, Toyota) and Volkswagen (Audi, Cupra, Porsche, SEAT, Škoda, VW).

Compliance mechanisms: To facilitate achievement of their CO₂ targets, manufacturers can use different compliance mechanisms: (1) Manufacturers can reduce their CO₂ levels by up to 6 g/km by deploying eco-innovation technologies. As a conservative estimate, we apply the 2023 level of eco-innovation CO₂ reductions per brand. (2) If a manufacturer’s ZLEV (zero and low-emission vehicles) share exceeds 25%, its CO₂ target is increased by the same number of percentage points, up to a maximum of 5%. This adjustment is referred to as the ZLEV factor, while the target before adjustment is called the reference target. The manufacturer’s final target is calculated by multiplying the reference target by the ZLEV factor. ZLEVs include BEVs (battery electric vehicles) and vehicles with CO₂ emissions equal to or below 50 g CO₂/km according to the WLTP cycle.