Driving the change: monitoring of new vehicle fleet emissions

DRIVING THE CHANGE

Monthly observatory of the EU car market and the 2025 emissions gap

Conducted in collaboration with:

Source of data: Dataforce

With the next stage of the European Union’s new CO₂ emission targets for light vehicles taking effect in 2025 (-15% compared to 2021), the EU automotive sector faces a decisive challenge. As the transition toward zero-emission electrified mobility accelerates, monitoring the car market becomes a useful benchmark for assessing manufacturers’ strategies in response to the new emission reduction targets.

To inform the debate with updated and reliable data, ECCO, in collaboration with ICCT and IDDRI–IMT, publishes monthly information on the average specific emissions of new vehicle fleets introduced into the market by manufacturers operating in the European market, as well as their distance from 2025 reduction targets.*

The monitoring will be accompanied by additional details on car registrations by propulsion type (BEV, PHEV, HEV, MHEV) and quarterly updates on the development of charging infrastructure and the registration of light commercial vehicles.

Through these updates, we aim to provide an assessment tool for car manufacturers, analysts, policymakers and all stakeholders involved in the transition to zero-emission mobility.

*The targets are estimated on a monthly basis according to the methodology adopted by Regulation 631/2019, amended by Regulation 851/2023, based on the evolution of YTD sales by vehicle type and characteristics.

MONTHLY REPORT

Download the full report by ICCT, ECCO and IDDRI-IMT

MARCH 2025

DATA

Distance from 2025 targets

In March 2025, the average CO2 emissions of new cars sold in Europe were 103 g CO2/km, 10 gCO2/km higher than the EU target for 2025 (+10%). Looking at individual manufacturer pools, Hyundai and Tesla-Stellantis-Toyota have significantly reduced their target gaps compared with the previous month, by 25% and 13%, respectively. The BMW pool is currently in compliance with its 2025 target, while Nissan (29 g CO2/km above) is the farthest from reaching its target. All values take into account the compliance credits provided for in the regulation.

Average emissions, distance from target and market share by pool of manufacturers

Looking at individual car brands with market shares of 1% or larger, apart from Tesla, after three months on the market Volvo had the greatest over-compliance at 29 g CO2/km below its projected brand level target for 2025 and was followed by Cupra (19 g CO2/km below target). Renault remains well positioned and in line with its targets (-1 gCO2/km), while Audi’s target gap, although improved compared to the previous month, remains the highest overall (+30 gCO2/km), together with Mazda and followed closely by Nissan (+29 gCO2/km), Ford and Seat (+26 gCO2/km), and Mercedes-Benz (+24 gCO2/km). Among the Stellantis brands, Peugeot (+8 gCO2/km) shows the best performance, followed by Citroen and Opel (+10 gCO2/km), while Fiat (16 gCO2/km) and Jeep (18 gCO2/km) remain far behind.

Average emissions, distance from target and market share by manufacturer group and brand

New electric vehicle registrations by manufacturer pool

The average distance from the targets highlighted above can be explained by looking at registrations of zero and low-emission vehicles. At an aggregate level, in March 2025, the average share of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in total new registrations in Europe remained stable at 16% in February. The BMW and Mercedes-Volvo-Polestar pools maintained their shares unchanged from the previous month, at 25% and 23% respectively (still the highest among competitors), while Kia reduced its share to 19% (from 22% in February). Hyundai rose to 18% (17% in February) and VW fell to 17% (compared to 18% in the previous month). The Tesla-Stellantis-Toyota pool confirmed BEV sales below the European average (14%), as did the Renault pool at 12%. MG and Nissan, which do not belong to any pool, recorded market shares of 8% and 6%, respectively.

Shares of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) in new registrations in Europe increased slightly to 8% in March, compared to 7% in February. The Mercedes-Volvo-Polestar pool confirmed its February share of 23%, while the BMW pool grew by one percentage point to 14%. All other competitors remained below 10%. Among full hybrid (HEV) vehicles, MG (non-pool) recorded a 41% market share, compared to 31% for Renault and Nissan, 22% for the Hyundai pool, 19% for Tesla-Stellantis-Toyota, 22% for Hyundai and 15% for Kia. In the mild hybrid (MHEV) category, the BMW, Mercedes-Volvo-Polestar, Tesla-Stellantis-Toyota and Nissan (non-pool) pools recorded shares of over 35%, continuing to grow compared to previous months.

Share of BEV, PHEV, HEV and MHEV by manufacturer pool

New passenger car registrations by country

Looking at the major European markets, total passenger car registrations in France and the Netherlands fell 15% in March compared with March 2024, and Italy surpassed France in market size. New registrations increased 24% in Spain and 19% in Czechia compared with the same month in the previous year. Combined BEV and PHEV market shares averaged 24% in Europe in March 2025, up 1 percentage point from February 2025. Norway (95%), Denmark (68%), Sweden (58%), and the Netherlands (53%) all had shares above 50%, and Belgium (41%), Austria (30%), and Germany (27%) also recorded combined BEV and PHEV market shares above the average for Europe.

Among the largest markets, the highest increase in BEV registrations occurred in Czechia, Spain and Italy, where registrations increased 261%, 94%, and 78%, respectively, in March 2025 compared with March 2024; meanwhile, registrations in France and the Netherlands decreased 14% compared with March 2024. Over 42,000 BEVs were registered last month in Germany, Europe’s largest market, and that was up 35% over March 2024. The largest year-over-year increase in PHEV registrations was in Czechia (+90% over March 2024) and HEV registrations increased the most in Spain (+34%). Shares of MHEVs were highest in Italy (32%) and Poland (30%) in March 2025, and they are gaining popularity in France and Spain, where registrations increased 59% (France) and 52% (Spain) in March 2025 compared with March 2024.

New BEV, plug-in hybrid, full hybrid and mild hybrid passenger car registrations by country

Share of new BEV, plug-in hybrid, full hybrid, and mild hybrid passenger cars by country

Historical trend of the share of new BEV registrations in Europe and Italy

At an aggregate level, the historical trend in BEV sales in Europe continues to grow compared to previous years. In Italy, too, the trend remains positive compared to the historical trend, albeit with a much less pronounced curve.

Quarterly update on light commercial vehicle registrations and emission targets

Over 346,000 new vans were registered in Europe in the first quarter of 2025, a 13% decrease over the same period in 2024. Of newly registered vans, 9% were battery electric; in the first quarter of 2024, 6% of new vans were battery electric. Nissan (13%), the Volkswagen pool (12%), Toyota (11%), and the Renault (10%) and Stellantis (9%) pools all had BEV shares at or above the European average; the Mercedes-Benz (7%) and Ford (4%) pools and Iveco (1%) were below the European average. Looking at the largest markets, shares of battery electric vans increased by 1 to 2 percentage points in the first quarter of 2025 compared with the same period in 2024. None of the manufacturers are currently on track to meet their CO2 targets for 2025 and the average target gap is 18 g CO2/km. Among manufacturers and manufacturer pools, Iveco and the Ford and Mercedes-Benz pools are currently the farthest from their 2025 CO2 targets, with respective target gaps of 35, 33, and 32 g CO2/km.

Share of BEV, PHEV, HEV and MHEV by manufacturer pool or large manufacturer not forming a pool

Average CO2 emissions of LCV fleets by manufacturer pool or non-pool manufacturer and market share

New LCV registrations by country

Market shares for BEV, PHEV, HEV and MHEV light commercial vehicles by country

Charging infrastructure in Europe

Over 1 million public charging points were installed in Europe by the end of the first quarter of 2025, up from around 950,000 at the end of 2024. For alternating current (AC) charging, this represents a 28% increase compared with the same point in 2024. Direct current (DC) charging points showed even greater growth, increasing 54% compared with the first quarter of 2024. Approximately 81% of Europe’s public charging points supply AC, and the remaining 19% supply DC.

Denmark recorded the largest growth in DC chargers by the end of the first quarter of 2025, +104% compared with the first quarter of 2024, and was followed by Belgium, which recorded a substantial increase in both DC and AC publicly accessible charging points (+92% and +60%, respectively). There were on average about 7.2 publicly accessible 22 kW-equivalent charging points installed per thousand passenger cars and vans on the road in Europe at the end of March 2025, up from 6.5 at the end of 2024. With nearly 46 publicly accessible 22 kW-equivalent charging points per thousand passenger cars and vans, Norway continues to lead Europe in charging infrastructure and is followed by Iceland (35), Denmark (30), and Sweden (22). Italy (3) and Spain (3) remain well below the European average.

22 kW-equivalent publicly accessible charging points installed per thousand passenger cars and vans, by type of power output and country by the end of March 2025

Number of publicly accessible charging points installed, by country and type of power output

A manufacturer pool is an alliance between different automakers who collaborate to jointly meet the CO₂ emission targets set by regulations. In practice, manufacturers can combine the average CO₂ emissions of the vehicles they put on the market, offsetting the excess emissions of some brands with the stronger performance of others within the alliance. This mechanism allows manufacturers to balance their impact and avoid penalties, facilitating compliance with the targets set by the regulation on CO₂ standards. For this publication, the 2025 pools listed in the European Commission’s “M1 pooling list” (cars) and “N1 pooling list” (vans), version of 15 March 2025, are used. 2024 closed pools from these lists have been carried over into 2025, even in the absence of a 2025 formal declaration, as they typically remain stable due to ongoing commercial affiliations (e.g., the BMW, Hyundai, and Kia pools). In contrast, only open pools that have been confirmed for 2025 are included, as their composition tends to change more frequently than closed pools. Additionally, it is assumed that the Renault Group forms closed passenger car and van pools in 2025 with its affiliated manufacturers. For cars, the main brands are: BMW pool (BMW, Mini), Hyundai pool (Hyundai), Kia pool (Kia), Mercedes-Volvo-Polestar pool (Mercedes-Benz, Polestar, Smart, Volvo), Renault pool (Dacia, Renault), Tesla-Stellantis-Toyota pool (Citroën, Fiat, Ford, Jeep, Mazda, Opel, Peugeot, Suzuki, Tesla, Toyota), Volkswagen (Audi, Cupra, Porsche, SEAT, Škoda, VW). For vans, the main brands are: Ford pool (Ford), Mercedes-Benz pool (Mercedes-Benz, Mitsubishi Fuso), Renault pool (Renault), Stellantis pool (Citroën, Fiat, Opel, Peugeot), Volkswagen pool (MAN, Volkswagen). Nissan and SAIC are large passenger car manufacturers not part of a pool. Similarly, Iveco, Nissan, and Toyota are large van manufacturers not part of a pool.

Compliance mechanisms: To facilitate achievement of their CO₂ targets, manufacturers can use different compliance mechanisms: (1) Manufacturers can reduce their CO₂ levels by up to 6 g/km by deploying eco-innovation technologies. As a conservative estimate, we apply the 2023 level of eco-innovation CO₂ reductions per brand. (2) If a manufacturer’s ZLEV (zero and low-emission vehicles) share exceeds 25%, its CO₂ target is increased by the same number of percentage points, up to a maximum of 5%. This adjustment is referred to as the ZLEV factor, while the target before adjustment is called the reference target. The manufacturer’s final target is calculated by multiplying the reference target by the ZLEV factor. ZLEVs include BEVs (battery electric vehicles) and vehicles with CO₂ emissions equal to or below 50 g CO₂/km according to the WLTP cycle.