Driving the change: monitoring of new vehicle fleet emissions

DRIVING THE CHANGE

Monthly observatory of the EU car market and the 2025 emissions gap

Conducted in collaboration with:

Source of data: Dataforce

With the next stage of the European Union’s new CO₂ emission targets for light vehicles taking effect in 2025 (-15% compared to 2021), the EU automotive sector faces a decisive challenge. As the transition toward zero-emission electrified mobility accelerates, monitoring the car market becomes a useful benchmark for assessing manufacturers’ strategies in response to the new emission reduction targets.

To inform the debate with updated and reliable data, ECCO, in collaboration with ICCT and IDDRI–IMT, publishes monthly information on the average specific emissions of new vehicle fleets introduced into the market by manufacturers operating in the European market, as well as their distance from 2025 reduction targets.*

The monitoring will be accompanied by additional details on car registrations by propulsion type (BEV, PHEV, HEV, MHEV) and quarterly updates on the development of charging infrastructure and the registration of light commercial vehicles.

Through these updates, we aim to provide an assessment tool for car manufacturers, analysts, policymakers and all stakeholders involved in the transition to zero-emission mobility.

*The targets are estimated on a monthly basis according to the methodology adopted by Regulation 631/2019, amended by Regulation 851/2023, based on the evolution of YTD sales by vehicle type and characteristics.

MONTHLY REPORT

Download the full report by ICCT, ECCO and IDDRI-IMT

January 2025

2024

JANUARY 2025

DATA

Distance from targets

Average CO₂ emissions among manufacturer pools fell substantially in the first month of the year to 103 g CO₂/km, down from the average of 107 g CO₂/km in 2024. KG Mobility, BMW and Kia are thus far compliant with their estimated 2025 targets, while Volkswagen (17 g CO₂/km above) and Suzuki (13 g CO₂/km above) are the furthest from reaching their targets. The Tesla pool, which includes Stellantis, recorded an average emission level of 103 g CO₂/km (about 8 g CO₂/km above target). On average, manufacturer pools are now just 10 g CO₂/km away from the 2025 target of 93 g CO₂/km. All values take into account the compliance credits allowed under the regulation.

Average emissions, distance from target and market share by pool of manufacturers

Considering the estimated target at the group level and looking at individual car brands with market shares of at least 1%, apart from Tesla, Volvo had the greatest over-compliance at 35 g CO₂/km below its target for 2025. It was followed by Cupra, which was 15 g CO₂/km below its brand-level target. Audi, Ford and Mercedes-Benz are currently the furthest from their 2025 projected brand-level targets at 35, 28, and 27 g CO₂/km above, respectively. With an average of 107 g CO₂/km, Stellantis is 11 g CO₂/km away from its target, with Fiat and Jeep showing the greatest distance at +14 and +17 g CO₂/km, respectively.

Average emissions, distance from target and market share by group

New electric vehicle registrations by manufacturer pool

The gaps between manufacturer pools and their 2025 targets, as highlighted above, can be explained by looking at the registration trends for zero and low-emission vehicles. The average share of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) among total new registrations in Europe was 16% in January 2025, down slightly from 17% in December 2024. The KG Mobility manufacturer pool had the highest BEV share (44%) and was followed by Mercedes-Benz and BMW (each 24%), Kia (22%) and Volkswagen (17%). Kia’s BEV share of 22% was an increase of 8 percentage points from the month prior, December 2024. After adding the brands Smart, Volvo and Polestar, the Mercedes-Benz manufacturer pool’s BEV share increased 6 percentage points over the previous month, to 24% in January 2025. While the Hyundai (13%), Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi (13%) and Tesla (12%) pools lagged in BEV sales, their shares of full hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), at 22%, 26% and 22%, respectively, were well above the 13% average for European manufacturer pools. Suzuki dominated with its 83% share of mild hybrid electric vehicles (MHEVs) and was followed by Mercedes-Benz and BMW, each with 36%. The share of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) in new registrations in Europe was 7% in January 2025, the same as the average for full year 2024.

Share of BEV, PHEV, HEV and MHEV by pool of manufacturers

New electric vehicle registrations by country

Looking at only BEV and PHEV vehicles, in January 2025, the average share of new registrations in Europe was 24%, up two percentage points from the 2024 average (16% BEV and 7% PHEV). Norway (97%), Denmark (66%), Sweden (51%) and the Netherlands (50%) all had shares at or above 50%, and Belgium (43%), Ireland (28%) and Germany (25%) recorded combined BEV and PHEV market shares above the average for Europe. In Italy, the combined share of BEV and PHEV registrations reached 9% (5% BEV and 4% PHEV), two percentage points above the 2024 average. Italy also had the highest share of mild hybrid (MHEV) registrations in Europe (33%, compared to the 2024 average of 28%).

Historical trend of the share of new BEV registrations in Europe and Italy

At an aggregate level, despite a slight decline in sales in January 2025 compared to the previous month, the historical trend of BEV sales in Europe continues to show steady growth, with an average higher than in all previous years. In Italy, the trend also remains positive, although with a noticeably less pronounced curve.

A manufacturer pool is an alliance between different automakers who collaborate to jointly meet the CO₂ emission targets set by regulations. In practice, manufacturers can combine the average CO₂ emissions of the vehicles they put on the market, offsetting the excess emissions of some brands with the stronger performance of others within the alliance. This mechanism allows manufacturers to balance their impact and avoid penalties, facilitating compliance with the targets set by the regulation on CO₂ standards. For this publication, the 2025 pools are defined according to the European Commission’s “M1 pooling list”, version of 15 January 2025, and the “Declarations of intent to form Open Pools”, version of 7 January 2025. The main brands include: BMW Group (BMW, Mini), Hyundai (Hyundai), KG Mobility (Great Wall Motor, Xpeng), Kia (Kia), Mercedes-Benz (Mercedes-Benz, Polestar, Smart, Volvo), Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi (Dacia, Mitsubishi, Nissan, Renault), Suzuki, Tesla (Alfa Romeo, Citroën, Fiat, Ford, Jeep, Lancia, Leapmotor, Lexus, Mazda, Opel, Peugeot, Subaru, Tesla, Toyota) and Volkswagen (Audi, Cupra, Porsche, SEAT, Škoda, VW).

Compliance mechanisms: To facilitate achievement of their CO₂ targets, manufacturers can use different compliance mechanisms: (1) Manufacturers can reduce their CO₂ levels by up to 6 g/km by deploying eco-innovation technologies. As a conservative estimate, we apply the 2023 level of eco-innovation CO₂ reductions per brand. (2) If a manufacturer’s ZLEV (zero and low-emission vehicles) share exceeds 25%, its CO₂ target is increased by the same number of percentage points, up to a maximum of 5%. This adjustment is referred to as the ZLEV factor, while the target before adjustment is called the reference target. The manufacturer’s final target is calculated by multiplying the reference target by the ZLEV factor. ZLEVs include BEVs (battery electric vehicles) and vehicles with CO₂ emissions equal to or below 50 g CO₂/km according to the WLTP cycle.